SNUx: Mathematical understanding of uncertainty

SNUx: Mathematical understanding of uncertainty

by Seoul National University

Probability and Statistics: To p or not to p

Course Description

Embark on an exciting journey into the world of probability and uncertainty with this comprehensive course offered by SNUx. "Probability and Statistics: To p or not to p" is an introductory-level course designed to provide students with a deep understanding of probability theory, its universal principles, and real-world applications. This 12-week course is divided into three parts, each focusing on essential aspects of probability and its practical use in various fields.

What Students Will Learn

Students will gain a solid foundation in probability theory, including:

  • Basic concepts such as random variables, expectation, and variance
  • Universal principles like the law of large numbers and central limit theorem
  • Heavy-tailed phenomena and large deviation principles
  • Theory of random processes and their real-world applications
  • Markov chains and their use in simulation, randomization, and deep learning

Pre-requisites

The course requires knowledge of calculus. However, prior knowledge of higher mathematics and probability is not necessary.

Course Content

  • Basics of probability theory
  • Mathematical formulation of probability
  • Random variables, expectation, and variance
  • Universal principles in probability theory
  • Law of large numbers and central limit theorem
  • Heavy-tailed phenomena
  • Random processes and their applications
  • Markov chains and their universal principles
  • Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)
  • Stochastic optimization and deep learning algorithms

Who This Course Is For

This course is ideal for:

  • Students interested in mathematics, statistics, or data science
  • Professionals looking to enhance their understanding of probability and its applications
  • Anyone curious about the role of uncertainty in various fields and how it can be quantified and exploited

Real-World Applications

The skills acquired in this course have numerous real-world applications, including:

  • Data analysis and interpretation in various industries
  • Financial modeling and risk assessment
  • Machine learning and artificial intelligence
  • Scientific research and experimentation
  • Decision-making under uncertainty in business and policy-making
  • Optimization of processes in engineering and manufacturing
  • Simulation and modeling in fields such as physics, biology, and social sciences

Syllabus

Course Outline

  1. Uncertainty: Control vs Exploit
  2. Quantification of Uncertainty (1): Probability and Random Variables
  3. Quantification of Uncertainty (2): Expectation and Variance
  4. Universal Principle (1): Law of large numbers
  5. Universal Principle (2): Central limit theorem
  6. Universal Principle (3): More on fluctuation
  7. Universal Principle (4): Random processes
  8. Universal Principle (5): Universality of random processes
  9. How to use uncertainty? (1): Introduction to Markov Chains
  10. How to use uncertainty? (2): Universal principles of Markov chains
  11. How to use uncertainty? (3): MCMC and Cutoff phenomenon
  12. How to use uncertainty? (4): Stochastic optimizations and deep learning

Each lecture covers specific topics and subtopics, providing a comprehensive exploration of probability theory and its applications.

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