Structured Expert Judgment: The Classical Model

Course Description

"Structured Expert Judgment: The Classical Model" is an introductory course offered by DelftX that delves into the fascinating world of expert opinion in complex decision-making scenarios. In our increasingly data-driven society, there are still numerous situations where traditional data analysis falls short. This course introduces you to various techniques for utilizing expert opinions to quantify uncertainty, with a particular focus on the Classical Model (CM) or Cooke's method.

Developed at TU Delft by Roger Cooke, the Classical Model has been successfully applied for over three decades across diverse fields such as climate change, disaster management, epidemiology, public health, ecology, aeronautics, nuclear safety, and engineering. This course will equip you with the knowledge to recognize when and how to apply the Classical Model in real-world situations where data is scarce or unreliable.

What You Will Learn

• Recognize appropriate settings for applying the Classical Model in Structured Expert Judgment
• Understand the importance of uncertainty assessments in complex decision-making contexts
• Learn how to analyze expert data using the Classical Model to obtain answers to critical questions
• Explore the IDEA Protocol, an alternative method for Structured Expert Judgment
• Gain in-depth knowledge of the Classical Model theory (for verified learners)
• Learn about dependence elicitation and probability elicitation (optional modules for verified learners)

Prerequisites

Basic concepts in Probability Theory and Statistics. Links to introductory videos on these concepts will be provided in the course.

Course Content

• Introduction to Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) and its applications
• Statistical accuracy (calibration) and information scoring
• Performance-based weights and the Decision Maker concept
• Data analysis techniques in the context of expert judgment
• Real-world applications of the Classical Model
• Practical aspects of expert elicitation, including biases and expert selection

Who Should Take This Course

This course is ideal for professionals, researchers, and students in fields where complex decision-making is required, especially in situations with limited data. It's particularly suitable for those working in or studying:

• Business and Management
• Risk Assessment and Management
• Environmental Sciences
• Public Health and Epidemiology
• Engineering and Technology
• Policy Making and Governance

Real-World Applications

The skills learned in this course have wide-ranging applications in the real world. Learners will be able to:

• Make more informed decisions in data-scarce environments
• Improve risk assessment and management strategies in various industries
• Enhance policy-making processes by incorporating expert opinions systematically
• Contribute to research projects requiring uncertainty quantification
• Develop more robust predictive models in fields like climate change, public health, and disaster management

Syllabus

This comprehensive course offers a unique opportunity to gain valuable skills in expert judgment quantification, which are increasingly important in our complex, data-driven world. Whether you're a professional looking to enhance your decision-making capabilities or a student aiming to broaden your analytical skillset, this course provides the tools and knowledge to tackle real-world challenges where traditional data analysis falls short.